By late May, all four Group F squads had been finalised. This article is the “sequel” to our Group F Preview (May edition), focusing now on the confirmed 26-man squads: predicted lineups, key players, six match previews and advancement scenarios.
All content here is pre-tournament: drawn from final squads, qualifying and warm-up matches only. No World Cup results are included.
4-team comparison dashboard
| Pot | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Coach | Ronald Koeman | Hajime Moriyasu | Graham Potter | Sabri Lamouchi |
| Appointed | 2023 (2nd spell) | 2022 | 2025 | 2025 |
| Squad announced | May 27 | May 21 | May 12 | May 15 |
| Captain | Van Dijk (Liverpool) | Wataru Endo (Liverpool) | Lindelöf (Aston Villa) | Skhiri (Eintracht) |
| Ace | De Jong (Barcelona) | Takefusa Kubo (Real Sociedad) | Gyökeres (Arsenal) / Isak (Liverpool) | (anchored by Skhiri) |
| Expected shape | 4-3-3 | 4-2-3-1 | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| WC history | 11 appearances / 3× runner-up | 7 appearances / 4× R16 | 13 appearances / 1× runner-up (1958) | 7 appearances / group-stage only |
| Last (2022) | QF (PK to Argentina) | R16 (PK to Croatia) | DNQ | Group stage (beat France) |
The “starriest” Netherlands, the most-European-based Japan in history, Sweden with a Gyökeres-Isak twin striker pairing unlike any other Pot 3 nation, and Tunisia leaning on disciplined defending and the Skhiri-Mejbri midfield axis. The four teams’ contrasting profiles mean the Pot-based forecast (Netherlands 1st, Japan 2nd) is far from guaranteed.
Team-by-team deep dive
Netherlands — Koeman’s polished system
Coach: Ronald Koeman (2nd spell since 2023; EURO 1988 winner as a player and a 1990/1994 World Cup veteran. First time managing at a World Cup.)
Squad makeup: 8 Premier League regulars (Van Dijk, Gakpo, Gravenberch, Timber, van de Ven, etc.) leads all four groups; 4 Serie A players (Reijnders, Koopmeiners, Maleen). Van Dijk continues as captain, with young Verbruggen (Brighton) the No.1 keeper.
Predicted XI (4-3-3):
GK: Verbruggen
RB: Dumfries CB: Van Dijk CB: van de Ven LB: Aké
CDM: De Jong
CM: Gravenberch CM: Reijnders
RW: Kluivert ST: Depay LW: Gakpo
Koeman’s preferred 4-3-3. De Jong anchors midfield, with Reijnders (Man City) and Gravenberch (Liverpool) as modern box-to-box 8s. The front three pairs experienced Depay (51 international goals — all-time top scorer) at No.9 with younger Gakpo (Liverpool) and Kluivert (Bournemouth) wide.
Talking points: Netherlands’ deepest squad since the 2010 runner-up run. The flip side: Koeman’s tournament management and Van Dijk (34) and Dumfries (30)’s closing speed in transitions become the late-stage questions.
Japan — Nakamura must fill Mitoma’s void in the 4-2-3-1
Coach: Hajime Moriyasu (continues from Qatar 2022; second World Cup at the helm)
Squad makeup: 21 of 26 are European-based, a Japanese record. 4 Premier League players (Endo, Kamada, Tanaka, Ito), 4 Bundesliga (Ito Hiroki, Sugawara, Sano, Suzuki Yuito), 4 Eredivisie (Tomiyasu, Itakura, Ueda, Ogawa), 1 La Liga (Kubo) — top 5 European leagues account for almost the entire roster. 39-year-old Yuto Nagatomo earns his fifth consecutive World Cup as the elder statesman.
Notable absences: Kaoru Mitoma (Crystal Palace, recent injury) and Takumi Minamino (Monaco) are not in the squad. Filling the left-wing void is the biggest tactical question — Keito Nakamura (Reims) and Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) are the chosen replacements.
Predicted XI (4-2-3-1):
GK: Zion Suzuki (Parma)
RB: Sugawara CB: Tomiyasu CB: Itakura LB: Ito Hiroki
CDM: Sano CDM: Endo
RW: Kubo AM: Kamada LW: Nakamura
ST: Ueda
The shape from final qualifying and recent friendlies. Kubo wears the No.10 jersey from the right wing, cutting inside — Japan’s established attacking pattern. Kamada (Crystal Palace) sits in the hole, with Endo + Sano as the double pivot. Ueda (Feyenoord) leads the line as a target striker.
Talking points: Three keys decide Japan’s fate — (1) Can Nakamura own the left where Mitoma used to dominate? (2) Can Tomiyasu (limited minutes this season) reach full match fitness? (3) Can the squad survive Arlington/Monterrey heat?
Sweden — Gyökeres + Isak twin-striker era
Coach: Graham Potter (appointed 2025; former Brighton/Chelsea manager. English, not Swedish, but began his coaching career at Helsingborgs in Sweden.)
Squad makeup: A Premier League-loaded roster (Gyökeres at Arsenal, Isak at Liverpool, Lindelöf at Aston Villa as captain, Elanga at Nottingham Forest). Carries the momentum from a successful Path B playoff run into the tournament.
Predicted XI (4-4-2):
GK: Johansson
RB: Holm CB: Isak Hien CB: Lindelöf LB: Gudmundsson
RM: Ayari CM: Karlström CM: Svanberg LM: Elanga
ST: Gyökeres ST: Isak
Potter’s preferred twin-striker 4-4-2. Gyökeres (Arsenal, 22 goals in 36 caps and 97 in 102 club games at Sporting CP) + Isak (Liverpool, joined from Newcastle in 2025 for a record fee) form arguably Europe’s most fearsome strike pair.
Talking points: Service to the front two is the question mark. Svanberg (Wolfsburg) is the expected creative midfield link — the accuracy of long balls behind the line will be tested. Defence stays in Sweden’s traditional mould of disciplined organisation, anchored by captain Lindelöf (ex-Manchester United → Aston Villa).
Tunisia — Skhiri + Mejbri midfield axis
Coach: Sabri Lamouchi (appointed 2025; French-Tunisian. Previously managed Nottingham Forest and Al-Nassr.)
Squad makeup: Six Top-5 European league players (Mejbri at Burnley, Skhiri at Frankfurt, Bronn at Salernitana, Khedira at Augsburg, Tounekti at Brann) — strong for a Pot 4 nation. Several Middle East players add an African + European + Gulf hybrid flavour.
Predicted XI (4-3-3):
GK: Dahmen
RB: Valéry CB: Bronn CB: Talbi LB: Abdi
CDM: Skhiri
CM: Khedira CM: Mejbri
RW: Tounekti ST: Saâd LW: Achouri
Lamouchi’s preferred 4-3-3. Ellyes Skhiri (Frankfurt, captain) is the midfield linchpin, with Hannibal Mejbri (Burnley, ex-Manchester United) operating as an attacking-minded 8. The front three favours direct play, with Tounekti (Brann) cutting in from the right and Achouri mirroring from the left.
Talking points: Tunisia famously beat France 1-0 in their final group game at Qatar 2022 (though they exited the group). The giant-killer DNA remains. This time, maintaining the defensive block while building from the Skhiri-Mejbri midfield is the key.
Six-match previews
June 14 (Sun) — NED vs JPN @ Dallas Stadium, Arlington
The opening day of Group F is a modern Japan vs Netherlands clash, their first competitive meeting since the 1-0 loss at South Africa 2010 — 16 years ago. Netherlands’ 4-3-3 (De Jong’s anchor) faces Japan’s 4-2-3-1 (Endo + Sano pivot) in a near-mirror. The Kubo vs Aké duel down Japan’s right will likely determine the attacking quality. Koeman has said Japan must not be underestimated; in the Arlington heat, Japan’s pressing legs could swing the late minutes.
June 14 (Sun) — SWE vs TUN @ Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey
Sweden’s twin strikers vs Tunisia’s defensive organisation — a classic stylistic duel. Can Tunisia’s compact block keep Gyökeres + Isak quiet? Surprisingly the head-to-head sits at Tunisia 1W / Sweden 0W / 3D. The Mexican altitude (~540m) won’t favour the Nordic Swedes.
June 20 (Sat) — NED vs SWE @ Houston Stadium, Houston
A Pot 1 vs Pot 3 heavyweight. Van Dijk and Gyökeres both know each other from the Premier League — whether Van Dijk + van de Ven can contain Gyökeres + Isak is the heart of this match. Both nations scored 8+ goal differentials in qualifying — there’s nothing soft about either attack. A major fork in the advancement race.
June 20 (Sat) — TUN vs JPN @ Estadio Monterrey, Monterrey
A defining moment for Japan’s advancement hopes. Japan won 2-0 in the only previous WC meeting (Japan/Korea 2002, Nakayama goal). 24 years later, they meet again. Cracking Tunisia’s block falls on the Kubo + Kamada + Nakamura triangle. Monterrey’s altitude and June heat make conditioning a key factor. A draw or better significantly advances Japan; a win puts the knockouts in reach.
June 25 (Thu) — JPN vs SWE @ Dallas Stadium, Arlington
The countries have barely met (the only competitive meeting was the 1936 Berlin Olympics — Japan 3-2). Tomiyasu + Itakura’s CB pair vs Gyökeres + Isak is the main attraction. If Japan already has 4 points (e.g. NED-draw, TUN-win), advancement is virtually secured — Moriyasu could rotate. For Sweden, this is also a major test of Potter’s first major-tournament squad.
June 25 (Thu) — TUN vs NED @ Kansas City Stadium, Kansas City
Group decider. Netherlands may have already advanced and could rotate; the top finish still needs to be earned. The Skhiri-Mejbri midfield vs De Jong-Reijnders-Gravenberch is the chess match. Tunisia eyes a repeat of their 1978 giant-kill against Mexico — taking down Europe’s leading side at this World Cup.
H2H highlights
| Fixture | Recent history |
|---|---|
| NED vs JPN | 2010 WC GS: NED 1-0 (Sneijder). Friendly 2013: 2-2 |
| JPN vs TUN | 2002 WC GS: JPN 2-0 (Nakayama). Recent friendly 2023: JPN 2-0 |
| JPN vs SWE | Only competitive match: 1936 Berlin Olympics (JPN 3-2). Friendly 2002: 1-1 |
| NED vs SWE | 20+ all-time meetings. Most recent: 2018 WC qualifier, NED 2-0 |
| NED vs TUN | 3 all-time. Most recent 2009 friendly: 1-1 |
| SWE vs TUN | 4 all-time. TUN 1W / SWE 0W / 3D — a surprising record |
For Japan, this is 16 years since the last NED meeting, effectively first competitive meeting vs SWE, 4 years since the last TUN game. Across the group, recent direct-data is sparse — the May article’s observation that “modern matchups make this group hard to read” still holds even post-squad.
Advancement scenarios + tiebreakers
The expanded 48-team World Cup advances top 2 + 8 best 3rd-placed teams to the Round of 32. Group F has clear Pot-based favourites, but:
Most likely scenario:
- Netherlands win the group (60-70% probability)
- Japan or Sweden finish 2nd (close race, each with 3rd-place backup)
- Tunisia targets a 3rd-place path
The 3rd-place line is ~4 points. 1W-1D-1L (4 points) likely advances among the 8 best thirds. 1D-2L (1 point) is highly unlikely.
FIFA tiebreaker order (revised for 2026):
- Points → 2. Head-to-head points → 3. H2H goal difference → 4. H2H goals → 5. Overall goal difference → 6. Overall goals → 7. Fair play points → 8. FIFA World Ranking
Key change for 2026: In 2018 and 2022, overall goal difference was the first tiebreaker. From this tournament, results between the tied teams come first. See Tiebreaker explainer.
Group F is shaped so that head-to-head results decide the order. Sweden’s twin strikers still have an incentive to run up scores, but under the 2026 rules, points → goal difference → goals in the matches between tied teams come first.
Japan’s view — the road to a quarter-final
Moriyasu Japan has reached the Round of 16 four straight times (2002 / 2010 / 2018 / 2022) but has never broken through. The realistic goal here is a historic first quarter-final.
Keys to a quarter-final:
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Calculate the bracket — Winning the group could pair Japan with Group E’s runner-up (Germany’s group) in the R32. Finishing second leads elsewhere. Beating Netherlands to win the group might actually open a softer R32-onwards path.
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Filling the Mitoma void — Can Keito Nakamura (11 caps) deliver the quality needed on the left in his first World Cup? Junya Ito’s potential use as a wing-back is also in play.
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Tomiyasu fitness — Ajax minutes have stabilised, but the World Cup demands up to 7 matches. Backup options: Itakura + Taniguchi + Tsuyoshi Watanabe CB rotation.
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Heat management — Arlington and Monterrey both push 30°C + 60%+ humidity in June. Hydration, substitutions and conditioning will all shape outcomes.
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PK preparation — Japan lost on penalties to Croatia in 2022 and has a painful PK history. Zion Suzuki (Parma)’s shoot-out form and Moriyasu’s kicker order are the unseen variables.
Netherlands and Sweden (combined 24 World Cup appearances) plus a Pot 4 Tunisia with giant-kill instincts make this a group where no game can be taken lightly. R16 advancement plus a first-ever R32 win must be treated as a single continuous goal — the next 11 days of preparation will decide who actually reaches the level needed.
Related articles:
- Group F Preview (May edition) — Pre-squad reading on draw outcomes and qualifying
- World Cup 2026 Format — 48-team format and the new knockout structure
- Group Tiebreaker Rules — Full ranking rules
For each nation’s 26-man squad, predicted XI, featured players and recent national-team matches, jump from the World Cup 2026 hub to each country’s squad page.